Bettor Habits Closing line value, explained
A pick's result is mostly out of your hands. The number you picked at is not. Closing line value compares the number you took with the number the market settled on just before kickoff, and it is one of the few checks on a pick that does not depend on who won.
What it is
Lines move between the day they open and kickoff, as money comes in and news lands. The last number before the game starts is the closing line, and it is generally treated as the market's best estimate. If you picked at a better number than the close, you "beat the close". If you picked at a worse one, the market moved away from you.
It is a comment on the price you paid, not on the result. You can beat the close and lose the game, and lose to the close and win it.
Three worked examples
Examples with made-up numbers
- A spread. You take the Eagles -3 on Tuesday, and the line closes at -4.5. You got 1.5 points of line better than the close. Had it closed at -2, you would have been 1 point worse.
- A total. You take the Over 44.5 and the total closes at 46. An Over wants a lower number, so you beat the close by 1.5 points. An Under wants a higher one, so the same move would have cost an Under bettor 1.5.
- A moneyline. You take a team at +150, which implies a 40.0% chance. It closes at +130, which implies 43.5%. You bought the same side for about 3.5 percentage points less than the close asked. (To convert a price to a percentage, see the breakeven calculator.)
Spreads and totals are measured in points of line, and moneylines in percentage points of implied probability. The two are different units, so they should not be averaged together.
What it can and cannot tell you
- It can show a habit. If you take a number, then watch it move against you most weeks, you may be picking late or after the value has gone. If it tends to move your way, you are getting ahead of the market.
- It cannot judge one pick. A single game is mostly luck, and so is a single line move. Read it over many picks.
- It cannot promise a profit. It is a check on your decisions, not a forecast of your results.
- It needs an honest close. A "closing line" captured days early is not a close. Only count a number recorded close to kickoff.
How to track it yourself
For each pick, write down the line or price you took and, at kickoff, the line or price on the same side. Subtract them the way the examples do, then count how many picks beat the close, out of how many you can measure. A simple count ("beat the close on 14 of 22") is easier to trust than an average.
Bettor Habits does this for each member automatically on its Scorecard, leading with that count for spreads, totals and moneylines. Futures and parlays are left out because they have no single closing line.