Chasing losses: how to spot it in your own picks

Chasing is raising your stakes after a loss to win it back. Most people who do it do not notice, because each bet feels like its own decision. The only reliable way to see it is to look at your own history.

What chasing looks like in a pick history

The pattern is a stake that follows a result instead of following the pick. You lose, and the next stake is bigger. You win, and the next one is bigger still. Both are the same habit pointing in different directions: your stake is reacting to how you feel about the last result, not to how confident you are in this pick.

How to check your own history

1. List your picks in the order you placed them, with the stake and the result of each.
2. Note the last result you actually knew about when you placed each one. This is the step people skip. The previous pick in the list is not necessarily the last result you knew: if it had not been played yet when you placed the next one, it could not have affected you. Match each pick to the latest result that was already final when you placed it.
3. Average your stakes after a loss and after a win, and compare both with your overall average.

Example with made-up numbers

Your stakes after a loss average 3.8 units, and after a win 2.0 units. That is 90% more after a loss than after a win. Whether that is a habit or a coincidence depends on how many picks are in each group.

Reading it fairly

• You need enough picks. A handful after a loss and a handful after a win is noise. Wait until each group has a real sample before trusting the comparison.
• Bigger is not always chasing. A bigger stake on a pick you like more is a judgment. What matters is whether the size follows your confidence or follows the last result.
• Check the other direction too. Staking more after a win is the mirror habit, and it is just as worth knowing about.
• Compare with other people if you can. A number means more next to a reference. Your own habit against how others in your group behave shows whether it stands out.

Ways to make it easier to see

• Decide the size of a stake before you look at the week's results, not after.
• Set a weekly limit in units and count it before you place anything new.
• Keep a written record. What you can see, you can change.

Bettor Habits reads this for each member in My Playbook: your stake after a loss against your stake after a win, matched to the results you actually knew about, with the group's habit beside it. It is a mirror and not advice, and it works only from your own picks.