Bettor Habits Breakeven win rate calculator
Every price asks for a certain win rate before it is even. Enter American odds below to see it, then enter your own record to see how it compares with the price you took.
-110 needs a win rate of 52.4% to break even.
Compare with my own record
Enter your wins and losses at this price. Pushes don't count.
How the number is worked out
American odds state a price against 100. A negative number is what you risk to win 100, and a positive number is what you win on 100 risked. The win rate that makes the price fair is:
- Negative odds: the odds without the minus sign, divided by that number plus 100. At -110 that is 110 / 210 = 52.4%.
- Positive odds: 100 divided by the odds plus 100. At +150 that is 100 / 250 = 40.0%.
That is the breakeven win rate: win more often than that at this price and you are ahead over a long run, win less often and you are behind.
Why -110 needs more than 50%
A spread or a total is usually priced -110 on both sides. Each side needs 52.4%, so the two prices add up to 104.8%. That extra 4.8% is what the sportsbook charges for taking the bet, and it is why a coin-flip pick loses slowly at -110. It is simply the number your record is being measured against.
Reference table
| Odds | Breakeven win rate | Wins per 10 picks |
|---|---|---|
| -300 | 75.0% | 7.5 |
| -250 | 71.4% | 7.1 |
| -200 | 66.7% | 6.7 |
| -150 | 60.0% | 6.0 |
| -130 | 56.5% | 5.7 |
| -120 | 54.5% | 5.5 |
| -110 | 52.4% | 5.2 |
| -105 | 51.2% | 5.1 |
| +100 | 50.0% | 5.0 |
| +110 | 47.6% | 4.8 |
| +120 | 45.5% | 4.5 |
| +150 | 40.0% | 4.0 |
| +200 | 33.3% | 3.3 |
| +250 | 28.6% | 2.9 |
| +300 | 25.0% | 2.5 |
| +400 | 20.0% | 2.0 |
| +500 | 16.7% | 1.7 |
What to do with it
A single overall win rate hides a lot. A 55% record on -110 spreads and a 55% record on -200 favorites are very different results, because the favorites needed 66.7%. The useful habit is to compare your hit rate with the breakeven for the price you actually took, one price band at a time, and to be honest about the sample: a few dozen picks can swing a long way on luck alone. Bettor Habits does this comparison for each member and only calls a verdict once a band has 50 decided picks.
For the other half of the story, how the number you took compares with where the line ended up, see closing line value explained.